The Truest Yankee

The three stupidest stats in baseball are Wins, Saves and Errors. The first two are worthless because they tell you nothing of a pitcher’s performance, but rather the circumstances under which he was put in and taken out of the game.

The problem with errors is the illogical nature in which they are judged. The latest example happened yesterday, when Carlos Gomez hit an inside the park homer on a grounder down the right field line. The point of the article is the amazing ways in which technology has affected the scoring of baseball games. But the key quote comes from Giants outfielder Cody Ross, the subject of the call in question:

“I missed it. It should be an error, actually,” Ross said. “It should not be an inside-the-park home run. I blew it, basically. It’s not a home run for sure. It definitely shouldn’t go against [Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez]. I went down to go get it and I whiffed. It got by me. Error. That’s it. It shouldn’t be a home run.”

I fully agree with him in one sense: If we’re going to have errors, why can there only be one when the ball was touched? This was an atrocious play on a solidly hit single, but in the record books it was a home run. Had Ross touched the ball, it would have been better for his team, as it would have slowed the ball’s progress, yet it would have been called a single and an error that gets him to second or third. The whole notion of contact as a necessity for an error is, quite simply, stupid. Let’s remember that most inside-the-park home runs are a result of shoddy play in the field. If an outfielder who completely misjudged a ball doesn’t get recognized for it, and a third baseman who can’t get to an easy grounder is not penalized, the system is broken.

Further, why do pitchers get taken off the hook for unearned runs? Last I checked, their job is to prevent runs from crossing, no matter how the runners got there. (And even as it is now, how is there any grounds for forgiveness when the pitcher himself committed the error?) In football, they don’t minimize a QB’s incompletion just because the receiver couldn’t reel it in. Nobody spares the save % of a goalie who had a puck deflected in by a team mate. So why do pitchers get to deduct runs from the main portion of their ledgers? Sure, the runs are recorded, but they are never recognized when discussing a pitcher’s efficacy.

In fact, the whole notion of the official scorer making judgement calls is quite silly. If a player has the awareness to take second on a throw into third, he should be given a double. The third baseman bobbled your hard-hit grounder? Good job on putting it in play for the fielder to have to deal with- here’s your single. Sure, we’d have the occasional play like yesterday result in a home run, but that’s fine by me. Last I checked, a player still must put in the work on the bases to take advantage of a fielder’s miscue. Why negate that?

There’s been way too much ink (and even more gigabytes) spent on the Yankees’ massive “flaw” of hitting too many home runs. Now, it’s true that teams can sometimes be way too obsessed with the long ball. But I’m going to show why this does not apply to this year’s Bronx Bombers.

When a player gets into trouble swinging for the fences, he will generally hit a lot of fly ball outs. Extrapolating that across the team, you’d expect a club being derided like these Yankees are to have the same flaw. Unfortunately for those looking for a story, this is just simply not the case.

According to Fangraphs, the Yankees lead the majors in HR/FB, which is the rate at which fly balls go for home runs. For every 100 fly balls this team has hit, 15.5 have left the yard. Further, they are only hitting fly balls 37.2% of the time, which is just 13th out 30 major league clubs. So not only are they not obsessively swinging for the fences, but out of the balls they have put in the air, they have been the most efficient at knocking them out.

Another symptom of desperate home run hitting is a high strikeout total. Not only are they once again close to the middle of the pack with 327, but they are also 4th in the league with a .54 BB/K rate, showing the patience this team has exemplified under Kevin Long. All this has also helped to create their 5th-ranked .333 OBP.

So when exactly can there be a home run problem? Either the homers can be coming at a high cost in outs, or not coming at all. This Yankee offense has neither such issue. Their abundance of home runs is the result of a team putting together good at bats and ending them with solidly struck hits. There’s no unsustainable measure of luck involved in that.

Besides, did the pop-ups and booted grounders of that highly touted 8th inning vs. the Mets really impress you more than moonshots?

The DH half of Subway Series 2011 is over. We can now return to intraleague play for a few weeks before the circus top goes up again. What can we take away from the first three AL/NL days of the year?

1) The Yanks and Red Sox took care of their inferior opponents, while the Rays didn’t.

2) The Yanks can drive in runs with bloopers and nubbers just fine. I still don’t get how those are preferable to home runs.

3) Ivan Nova showed remarkable resiliency. He was off all game, but stuck it out and minimized the damage.

4) A.J. Burnett… well, we learned nothing. He was on. That happens as often as it doesn’t. I’m done declaring that one start or the other is the “real” A.J.

5) Derek Jeter is getting a move on 3,000. There was a time when early July was an aggressive bet. If we get through June and haven’t partied with The Captain yet, something will have gone wrong.

6) The two leagues split Round 1 21-21, but let’s not declare them equals just yet.

7) The Felix Hernandez/Michael Pineda combination is going to be the best duo of this generation- if the Mariners keep them together.

8) The Red Sox can keep winning without production from Carl Crawford. This race will likely be decided by which team’s underachievers start performing first.

9) Bartolo Colon is a pioneer.

10) The Phillies are about to improve.

11) The Rangers are about to improve even more.

Anyone else learn anything? Let me know in the comments.

Every year, the start of interleague play opens the debate on the validity of the DH. My stance is simple: in no way does putting an incompetent batter in a major league batter’s box improve the game. So rather than discuss the elimination of the DH, we should be pining for its implementation in the NL.

Judgement Day and the ensuing apocalypse are reportedly imminent, and the CDC has released its official guidelines for surviving a zombie horde. But in the world of baseball, players previously believed to have contributed their last are now rising from the scrap heap and resurrecting their careers. Here are the best of them:

Bartolo Colon (2-2, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

He showed up in Tampa looking like Hideki Irabu reincarnated, but has done nothing but impress with his performance. He has been the Yankees best pitcher, and I’m not forgetting about CC Sabathia (although he seemed to finally get it going last night).

Likelihood of Continued Survival: Very High. His K:BB ratio is nearly 4:1, and he’s done it with nothing but fastballs. The only question is his long-term health, but his much-talked-about stem-cell treatment seems to have set his biological clock back a few years.

Philip Humber (3-3, 3.18, .949)

He was the biggest piece of the package that convinced the Twins to trade Johan Santana. He spent the next few years bouncing around the Twins and Royals organizations. The White Sox took a flier on him, and he has been solid over the course of his seven starts, including a 1-hit gem in the Bronx.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: Moderately High. He’s not exactly justifying the status he achieved in that deal, but he’s showing that he can have a solid career. And that WHIP is microscopic.

Dustin Moseley (1-6, 3.40, 1.30)

His cult hero status among Yankees fans notwithstanding, he’s a 1st round pick from 2000 who has never spent a full season in the majors. But here he is, posting 6 consecutive quality starts to open the season. Another example of a W-L record not backing up performance.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: Low. His last three starts have fallen short of 6 innings,  that WHIP is a bit concerning, and he’s only struck out 25 batters. That’s before we even get to the Performance Enhancing Ballparks issue.

Russel Martin (.268 AVG/.371 OBP/.480 OPS)

A few years ago, he was the face of a new generation of catchers. Athletic, durable, and consistent. But he took a nosedive in his last two years in LA, and was signed to be the stopgap between Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero. But he has instead returned to form, showing the speed that his hip injuries supposedly robbed him of and the passion that was lacking the last few years.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: Moderate. He’s cooled off a bit, and the injury history is troubling. But he should be able to land on his feet elsewhere when the Yanks promote Montero.

Todd Helton (.323/.375/.548)

I’m not sure anybody thought his career was quite over yet, but he’s been showing weakness over the last few years. The OBP isn’t quite at the remarkable levels of his prime, but his OPS is 5th among major league first basemen, and his defense is still exceptional.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: Moderately High. He’s got a sore back right now, and at his age that can become a major concern. But the skills have not gone anywhere. He should stick around another few years.

Carlos Beltran (.285/.377/.555)

Remember when he could barely walk this March? It’s hard to now. His production is right in line with what he was doing before the injuries started piling up. His fielding may be a bit suspect, and it may not be 2006 again, but he’s far from finished.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: High. It’s hard to ignore such a devastating rash of injuries, but at 34 he should have a few years left in the tank.

Alex Gordon (.275/.335/.444)

He was the next George Brett, the third baseman who would carry Kansas City back to respectability. Now he’s the left fielder on a team with even greater future stars. But this year, he has finally started garnering some recognition, nearing 50 hits to this point.

Likelihood of Continued Survival: High. Now, I’m not declaring him a star. He is merely repeating his solid performance from 2008. He may never put up the numbers that were expected of him. But he should be in the majors for a solid decade.

And I give Jason Giambi credit for his one night back. If he does it again, he gets on the list.

Did I miss anyone? Do you disagree with any of my assessments? Let me know in the comments.

I don’t get it. Is this their way of getting his bat going? It better work, because the defense at first just went from elite to… well, the opposite end of the spectrum.

It’s easy to lambaste the skipper who yanks a pitcher after 8 shutout innings. Especially when those innings required just 87 pitches. But let’s face it: 20 of those pitches came in the 8th inning, a frame which also featured Bartolo Colon’s only walk of the night. If the other option weren’t the greatest bullpen arm in the game’s history, it would have been 50/50 to send Colon back out. But when Mariano Rivera is available to get three outs, there are very few scenarios in which you don’t use him. And tonight was not one of them.

I’ve read in many places that the sudden drop-off in offense is good for the game. I don’t know if people honestly believe that, or if this opinion is just a way of compensating for the perceived illegitimacy of the last two decades. (My take on this perception was summed up nicely by David Schoenfield recently.) Either way, I’m not buying into the idea that any era is truly better than the last. From dead balls to live ones, expansion to free agency, raised mounds to raised HR totals, the game’s core has remained mostly intact, and which element is emphasized is just a cycle which eventually balances out.

With regards to this current rise of pitching, I wonder how it’s any more “real” to see Armando Gallarraga and Dallas Braden throw gems than it is to see Brady Anderson hit 50 homers. Just a few years ago, perfect games and no-hitters were accomplishments worthy of adulation. Today, they seem to occur with the frequency of complete game shutouts during the nascent years of this millennium. I, for one, do not believe these changes are any better for the game than the expectation of having at least one 50-homer player every year.

It’s clearly time to adjust the lineup. It’s time to admit that A-Rod is no longer who we want him to be, and give Curtis Granderson his due. Egos are going to be quite the issue, but perhaps Posada can serve as motivation to his teammates to take the high road. So here’s what I believe the Yankees should be trotting out:

(1) Brett Gardner, LF- The poor start was just that. He’s back to working counts and getting on base, and there’s no question he’s got the speed to justify this position.

(2) Russel Martin, C- He’s cooled off considerably, but we know that what we saw last month was an accurate representation of his raw talent. Even in the last few years, he’s been a solid OBP guy, and he’s shown the base running ability to be a table-setter.

(3) Curtis Granderson, CF- He’s still prone to the K, but he’s got his OBP up to .350 and is slugging with the best of ’em. He may eventually cool off, but he’s clearly the team’s best hitter right now.

(4) Robinson Cano, 2B- If he recapture his refined approach from last year, he could supplant Granderson in the 3-spot. But for now, he’s their next-best slugger.

(5) Mark Teixeira, 1B- Again, I can see him heating up again at some point in this season. If all is as it should be, I’d like to see it go Cano-Teixeira-Granderson.

(6) Alex Rodriguez- 3B- He’s no longer among the game’s elite sluggers. But he shouldn’t be as terrible as he looks right now.

(7) Eduardo Nunex, DH- Not optimal, but the best option available that doesn’t risk the development of a future cornerstone. It’s time to at least see what the roadblock to Cliff Lee can do in an everyday role.

(8) Nick Swisher, RF- Andruw Jones is old. He is no longer a great fielder, and I don’t think he can handle a daily role. Unless there’s a better answer coming down the pipeline, they’ve got to stick with Swish and hope he comes around.

(9) Derek Jeter, SS- Not because he’s done. It’s because the skills he brings to the ballpark are now represented more impressively by Gardner and Martin. Girardi has been putting Gardner down here to pair with Jeter. It’s time to reverse those roles.

Admittedly, this blog has been through more fits and starts than Joba Chamberlain’s career, but this conversion to WordPress will hopefully give it the kick that gets it on a permanently forward-moving track. I’ll start off with an element of the recent Posada dilemma that has had me scratching my head.

When Jorge was a free agent a few years ago, the Yankees were dead-set on a three-year deal. Then the Red Sox and Mets got involved, and the Yanks decided they needed to tack on the $13.5M that is currently buying them a designated hitter who can’t hit. Now, I understand that they viewed this year as the premium necessary to hold on to their asset and keep him out of enemy hands. But now he’s no longer an asset. His salary is dead weight whether he’s on the roster or not. It seems that the only things keeping him here are sentimental value and the fear that he can got to the Sox. Sentimentality is how we ended up with the ridiculous contract for Jeter. And the second issue- losing a legend to a rival- doesn’t make all that much sense to me. If the Yankees have determined that a player is no longer of value, why should they care if he latches on with the Red Sox?

We see this all the time: teams refuse to make moves based on the fear that it may come back to bite them. How is this a good way to operate a franchise? Trust your instincts, and cut bait when the getting’s good. Fear of failure can not override the drive for success.